>Y u so obsessed with me
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Math conundrum

Victorio

Kheibar Breaker خیبر شکن
Joined
May 2, 2025
Messages
813
Two prisoners each secretly pick a number 1%–99%. They “roll” that chance:

If it triggers, they go to jail 7 years.

If both survive, the higher number wins freedom, the other serves 7 years.

If one survives and one triggers, the survivor is freed.

If both trigger, both serve 7 years and repeat.

If tied and both survive, flip a coin.

Now my question for you is what is the mathematically optimal number for you to pick as your chance %?

And yes this description was AI generated but the idea was my own. I just have trouble explaining spergy concepts to pipo
 
And I already know the answer to this question and it's a very interesting and unexpected answer, not a simple number. Try to think about why that is
 
>Two prisoners each secretly pick a number 1%–99%. They “roll” that chance:

>If it triggers, they go to jail 7 years.

I don't quite understand
They are competing against each other. They have to pick a %chance which, upon it being active, they will go to jail for 7 years, but if they don't go to jail and their %chance is higher than the competitor, they win
 
Imagine 2 guys rolling 2 dice. One says "I will kill myself if my dice lands on 1 or 2" the other says "I will kill myself if my dice lands on 6"
There's a 2/6 chance the first guy dies because of the dice, and a 1/6 chance the second guy does. However, if neither of them die, the first guy wins, and the second guy dies
 
They are competing against each other. They have to pick a %chance which, upon it being active, they will go to jail for 7 years, but if they don't go to jail and their %chance is higher than the competitor, they win
ok I THINK I GET IT
so,
if I pick 50 and the other person picks 40:
if chance 60 activates we go to jail
if chance 30 activates the other person goes to jail
if chance 45 activates the other person goes to jail

yes or no?
 
ok I THINK I GET IT
so,
if I pick 50 and the other person picks 40:
if chance 60 activates we go to jail
if chance 30 activates the other person goes to jail
if chance 45 activates the other person goes to jail

yes or no?
No you're overthinking it
If you pick 50% and he picks 40%, there is an individual roll for each of you.
For you, simply 50% chance you go to jail immediately and 50% chance you don't immediately go to jail

For him, it's a 40% chance he goes to jail, and a 60% chance he doesn't.

But if neither of you go to jail, you have the higher percentage, so you win
 
No you're overthinking it
If you pick 50% and he picks 40%, there is an individual roll for each of you.
For you, simply 50% chance you go to jail immediately and 50% chance you don't immediately go to jail

For him, it's a 40% chance he goes to jail, and a 60% chance he doesn't.

But if neither of you go to jail, you have the higher percentage, so you win
ok I think that clarifies it, I'll try to solve it now
 
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